Market Outlook – 1st to 15th November 2023 Pricing Window

Refined Products Review and Outlook

Global crude prices have remained relatively unchanged despite the concerns that the Israel–Hamas war in the Gaza Strip might escalate to other parts of the Middle East. According to Reuters, some US and Saudi Arabian leaders have been engaging to discuss measures that will ensure the war does not escalate to include major oil-producing countries like Iran, to curtail further humanitarian crises.

In the pricing window under review, crude oil prices on the global market declined by about 1.1% from USD92.70/bbl to USD91.68/bbl. This marginal decline is attributed to the slowdown in Europe’s manufacturing and service sector activities as reported by Reuters. According to Reuters, recent growth indicators from the European Central Bank indicate that Europe’s manufacturing and service activities declined marginally in September, suppressing the demand for petroleum products.

As a result, experts continue to express worry that the eurozone might continue to remain stagnant or shrink due to weak external demand and high interest rates. This is likely to lead to a revision of the projected rise in petroleum product prices in Q4.

Moreover, the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that global crude prices might decline in 2024 due to the increased global investment in renewable energy which has outpaced investment in fossil fuels by about 80% in 2023. According to the IEA, the increased investment in renewable energy such as solar panels, electric vehicles and nuclear power signifies an increasing momentum toward the IEA’s net zero emissions by 2050.

This notwithstanding, demand for petroleum products is expected to be on an increasing trajectory due to the approval of a bill by the top parliamentary body in China to issue USD137 billion in sovereign bonds and permit local authorities to boost the economy by issuing new debt from their 2024 quota.

The international market price of Petrol, Diesel, and LPG plummeted marginally by 0.01%, 0.95%, and 1.71% respectively. Compared to the same period last year, Petrol, Diesel, and LPG declined by 12.0%, 24.6%, and 12.8% respectively. On a year-to-date basis, while the international market price of Petrol and Diesel rose by 18.1% and 2.3% respectively, LPG declined by 4.0%.

FuFeX30 And Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the Second selling window of November (1^st to 15^th November 2023) is estimated at GHS12.2000/USD, while the applicable spot rate for cash sales is GHS12.0000/USD based on quotations received from oil financing commercial banks.

[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day Ghs/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.

[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day Ghs/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.

The BoG’s bi-weekly FX auction to BIDECs in the 16^th to 31^st October 2023 pricing window for the purchase of petroleum products was US$20million, representing 20% of BIDECs’ bid. The FX rate auctioned by BoG to BIDECs was GHS11.6435/USD – a depreciation of 1.9% compared to the previous auction rate.

The Ex-refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converted from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the FuFex30 for sales on credit and spot FX rate for sales on cash. The Ex-refinery price of Petrol is expected to range from GHS8.7717 to GHS8.9172 per liter while Diesel is expected to range from GHS10.5514 to GHS10.7273 per liter in the 1^st to 15^th November 2023 pricing window. The Ex-refinery price of LPG is expected to range from GHS8.4188 to GHS8.5592 per kilogram in the 1^st to 15^th November 2023 pricing window.

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 16^th to 31^st October selling window accounted for 23%, 22%, and 15% of the ex-pump prices of Petrol, Diesel, and LPG respectively.

OMC Pricing Performance: 16^th to 31^st October 2023

Prices of petroleum products at the pumps declined marginally in the 16^th to 31^st October 2023 pricing window. The decline in the prices was mainly attributed to a decline in global prices in the 27^th September to 11 October 2023 international pricing window. The demand for crude and petroleum products slumped within the period due to a decline in gasoline demand in the US and Europe in September.

Crude prices rose from about USD82.32/bbl in the first quarter of 2023 to about USD94.76/bbl at the end of September 2023. Major factors that are contributing to the current surge in global crude prices include the significant cut in crude production by OPEC+, the fall in crude inventories, mild post-COVID economic recovery in China, and increasing demand for jet fuels. These factors are expected to result in global demand outpacing supply by about 1.24 million b/d in the second half of 2023.

The Cedi also depreciated in the selling window under review by about 10 percent. This resulted in a surge in pump prices by about 2 percent. Furthermore, fuel prices are expected to rise going into the end of the year due to the expected depreciation of the Cedi in Q4 as a result of the usual increase in corporate demand for foreign exchange getting to the end of the year.

Pump prices of Petrol declined by about 2.8% from an average of GHS12.9310/Ltr to GHS12.5660/Ltr in the second selling window of October. This was mainly due to the decline in global prices. On a year-on-year basis, Petrol pump prices declined by about 12% while on a year-to-date basis, they rose by 2%. This declining trend is expected to be reversed in November as Saudi Arabia and Russia resolve to maintain their decision to cut production through to the end of the year, leading to an increase in global prices of petroleum products.

Average Petrol Ex-pump prices (GHS/ltr)

Similar to the pump price of Petrol, Diesel prices declined marginally by about 1.5% from an average of GHS13.3940/ltr to GHS13.25278/ltr in the 16^th to 31^st October 2023 selling window. On a year-on-year basis, pump prices of Diesel declined by about 3%, and 7% year-to-date basis. From the second selling window of June to the current pricing window, Diesel pump prices have risen by about 12%. This rise is attributed to international market factors as the Cedi/USD exchange rate remaining steady throughout Q3.

Average Diesel Ex-pump prices (GHS/ltr)

With the decline in global prices of refined petroleum products and the appreciation of the cedi, pump prices of Petrol, Diesel, and LPG are expected to slightly increase by about 3%, 2%, and 2% respectively in the first selling window of November 2023.