Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook    

International crude oil prices plummeted significantly by about 12.33% in the period under review, averaging around USD114 per barrel, after surging to nearly USD130 per barrel in the first week of April, the highest level since 2022. The decline was largely driven by improved market sentiment following a two-week ceasefire agreement involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which temporarily eased fears of prolonged disruptions to global oil supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil prices on the international market surged significantly between January and April, driven largely by escalating conflict in the Middle East and heightened concerns over global supply disruptions. By April, prices had risen to nearly twice the levels recorded in December 2025. On a year-on-year basis, crude oil prices increased by approximately 68.59%, underscoring the scale of the current market disruption. Over the first four months of the year (January to April), prices surged by as much as 110% at their peak before moderating slightly to close April at an overall increase of about 84% relative to December 2025 levels.

The missile strikes on critical energy infrastructure is expected to continue to constrain global oil supply and increase geopolitical risk premiums in the international crude market. It is reported that the retaliatory attacks on liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Qatar are expected to reduce the country’s LNG export capacity by approximately 17% over the next three to five years. This projected disruption in LNG supply is likely to have far-reaching implications for global energy markets, especially in Europe and Asia, where dependence on Qatari LNG remains substantial, potentially driving up energy costs.

Furthermore, the situation has been exacerbated by security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, vessels bound for East and Southern Africa, as well as Asia, which typically transit shorter Middle Eastern shipping routes, are increasingly compelled to adopt longer alternative routes. This shift has contributed to higher freight and marine insurance costs, thereby exerting upward pressure on overall supply costs.

In the downstream market, refined petroleum product prices have also recorded moderate declines, with petrol, diesel, LPG, and aviation turbine kerosene (ATK) falling by 1.08%, 14.16%, 13.11%, and 9.42%, respectively. However, relative to January levels, prices remain significantly elevated, with petrol, diesel, and LPG increasing by approximately 66.57%, 92.84%, and 71.04%, respectively.

Despite the ongoing ceasefire and the moderate decline in crude prices, freight rates and marine insurance premiums for the delivery of refined petroleum products to Sub-Saharan Africa have increased significantly. This trend is expected to translate into higher landed costs and, consequently, exert upward pressure on pump prices in the next pricing window.

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the first selling window of May (1^st to 15^th May 2026) is estimated at GHS11.3000/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.2500/USD. 

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.

Ex-ref Price Effective 16^th to 30^th April 2026

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

During the 16th to 30th April 2026 selling window, total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins accounted for approximately 28.31%, 12.93%, and 12.48% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. This was partly due to the government’s reduction of some petroleum product margins as a relief measure for consumers. The data indicates that consumers continue to bear a substantial tax and levy burden on petroleum products.

OMC Pricing Performance: 16^th to 30^th April 2026

Pump prices of petroleum products have increased for six consecutive pricing windows since February 2026, driven largely by escalating geopolitical tensions in the ongoing US/Israel-Iran war. While the Ghanaian cedi has remained relatively stable since the second quarter of 2025, the upward pressure from elevated international crude oil prices has translated into persistently higher ex-pump prices. This divergence between exchange rate stability and sustained strength in global oil benchmarks continues to place pressure on domestic fuel pricing dynamics.

However, during the 16th to 30th April pricing window, the government suspended certain margins and levies on petroleum products to provide relief to consumers. Specifically, the Primary Distribution Margin (PDM), BOST Margin, and Fuel Marking Margin (FMM) were fully suspended for diesel and reduced for petrol. This intervention resulted in a moderate rise in pump price in the window under review, cushioning consumers from the significant escalation that was expected in the pricing window.

The European Commission has also permitted its members to provide relief to citizens in response to the surging pump prices. According to Reuters news agency, “the Commission on Monday proposed changing ​EU state aid rules to allow more public spending for industries hit acutely by fuel price increases, including agriculture, road transport and shipping within Europe”.

These changes ​would let governments cover part of the price increase companies have ​paid for their fuel. Some countries, such as Germany, Italy, Poland ​, and Hungary, have already ​introduced funding measures, including fuel price caps and tax cuts, to provide relief for consumers.

In the window under review, petrol pump prices increased marginally by 0.39%, driven by the combined rising international petroleum product prices and the removal of about GHS0.36 from the price of petrol. On a year-to-date basis, pump prices have cumulatively increased by about 21.89%, reflecting sustained cost pressures within the downstream petroleum market.

Diesel pump prices, however, decreased by 0.63% due to the significant cut in the government regulatory margins of about GHS2 per liter in the window under review, despite the significant surge in the international price. On a year-on-year basis, diesel prices are up by about 24.42% and have increased by 43.95% compared to January 2026 levels. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) also recorded a decrease of about 3.86%, largely reflecting movements in international market fundamentals.

In the coming window, pump prices of petrol are expected to rise moderately, while diesel prices are expected to decline slightly due to the significant increase in freight and insurance costs within the period, arising from the high insecurity issues around the Middle East.

[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.