Market Outlook – 15th to 30th September 2023 Pricing Window

Refined Products Review and Outlook

Global oil demand increased significantly in Q3 due to the post-pandemic economic recovery in China as well as the reduction in crude production by OPEC+ nations. While global oil demand has been projected to reach its highest annual level in 2023 at about 102.2 million b/d, demand in June and August exceeded 103 million b/d. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply plunged by 910,000 b/d to 100.9 million b/d in July. While OPEC+ production fell by about 1.2 million b/d, the nonOPEC+ output increased by about 310,000 b/d in July 2023. Production data from the IEA indicates that the US accounts for nearly 80% of the output growth in 2023. Notwithstanding the increase in refinery throughput from 2.4 mb/d in May to about 83.9 mb/d in August, prices of refined products continue to surge in the global market due to increased demand.