Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook    

Crude oil prices on the global market have again surged towards the US$90/bbl mark after falling significantly from the peak of about US$130/bbl recorded during the height of the US-Iran conflict in April and May to an average of US$71/bbl in July. However, stalled negotiations and renewed hostilities between the two countries have continued to reignite tensions in the Middle East, resulting in crude prices rising to an average of above US$92/bbl in the last window of August.

Although the US and Iran had agreed to pause hostilities to allow for negotiations and facilitate the movement of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, the failure to sustain the ceasefire has escalated tensions and constrained vessel movements through the Strait. Hence, the breakdown of the ceasefire agreement reached in late June reversed the gains made when crude oil prices fell to as low as US$70/bbl following the agreement. Retaliatory attacks between the two countries on Sunday, 30th August, have further diminished expectations of the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted vessel traffic.

Available data indicate that vessel traffic through the Strait has declined significantly, with only a handful of vessels (5 to 10) transiting the waterway on some days compared with substantially higher pre-war traffic of 120 to 140 vessels per day. The continued disruption has significant implications for global crude oil supply given the strategic importance of the Strait, through which approximately 20% of global oil supplies transit. The EIA expects disruptions to Middle East crude supplies to persist into 2027, although it projects that prices will gradually decline as production recovers and global inventories are replenished. It forecasts Brent crude at an average of US$85/bbl in Q3 2026 and US$78/bbl in Q4, before declining further in 2027.

Consequently, crude oil, petrol, diesel, LPG, and ATK rose on the international market by 1.75%, 8.80%, 5.51%, 3.31%, and 4.47%, respectively. Diesel has surged more than 100% of its price compared to January and the same period last year. Petrol is up 55.28% from last year and 81.71% from January. Due to the continuous surge in global crude and petroleum products prices, pump prices in Ghana for the 1st to 15th September 2026 pricing window are expected to increase for all petroleum products.

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the first selling window of September (1^st to 15^th September 2026) is estimated at GHS11.5000/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.4000/USD. The cedi has appreciated by 3.36% compared to the previous window. However, this appreciation is not sufficient to offset the significant surge in petroleum product prices and is therefore unlikely to reduce pump price increases.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.

Ex-ref Price Effective 1^st to 15^th September 2026

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

During the 16^th to 31^st August 2026 selling window, total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins accounted for approximately 27.59%, 13.08%, and 12.76% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. Due to the recent surge in petroleum products prices, particularly diesel, government suspended some of the levies and margins (Ghs2/Ltr) on diesel to cushion consumers as commercial transport drivers threatened to increase transport fares by 30%.

OMC Pricing Performance: 16^th to 31^st August 2026

Pump prices escalated significantly during the pricing window under review, following the renewed escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran. International crude and refined petroleum product prices rose significantly, with crude prices crossing the US$90/bbl mark and exerting upward pressure on pump prices in the window under review.

The conflict, which escalated earlier in the year, disrupted global energy markets and significantly increased crude oil prices from about US$68/bbl to nearly US$130/bbl due to attacks on critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This resulted in significant increases in pump prices from March to June, leading to government intervention to reduce petrol and diesel prices by GHS0.36 and GHS2.00 per litre, respectively, to cushion consumers.

Following the ceasefire reached in late June, international crude oil prices declined significantly, falling below US$70/bbl as concerns over supply disruptions eased and market confidence regained. Consequently, pump prices declined substantially to pre-war levels, giving government the fiscal space to restore the petroleum sector levies that had previously been suspended to cushion consumers from the sharp increase in fuel prices.

However, renewed military strikes between the US and Iran in recent weeks reignited concerns over the security of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East pushed international crude and refined petroleum product prices upward, resulting in an upwards price adjustment among several OMCs in Ghana. Stakeholders subsequently called on government to intervene to cushion consumers after commercial transport operators threatened to increase fares. Consequently, government intervention led to the removal of about GHS2.00/Ltr from the price of diesel, bringing the average price of diesel down to GHS17.21/Ltr.

The average pump price of petrol declined slightly by 1.33% from GHS15.6856/Ltr to GHS15.4767/Ltr, due to the marginal decline in international petroleum product prices in the previous window. Petrol prices remain elevated by 24.44% year-on-year and 36.59% compared to January 2026 prices.

The average pump price of diesel edged marginally by 0.08% from GHS17.1956/Ltr to 17.2100/Ltr. Compared to the same period last year, diesel prices are 27.54% higher and remain 42.23% above their January 2026 levels.

Pump prices are projected to rise significantly across all OMCs during the upcoming window from September 1 to 15, 2026. The anticipated increases can be attributed to the sharp rise in refined petroleum product prices due to the renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, the 3.36% appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi during the previous window is expected to provide some offsetting effect on domestic prices.

[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward FX rate used as a benchmark rate by BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.