Crude Oil and Refined Products Market Review and Outlook

Crude oil prices in the global market declined by about 3.69% compared to the previous pricing window, demonstrating the sector’s recovery from the geopolitical tensions in Q2 that spiked prices considerably around the period. Similarly, refined petroleum products (petrol, diesel, LPG, and ATK) fell considerably within the same period. Petrol, diesel, LPG, and ATK declined by 0.45%, 3.74%, 1.73%, and 2.06% respectively. Crude and petroleum product prices rose sharply in June by about 8% following Israel’s and US attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites and the resultant retaliatory attacks from Iran. The prices, however, declined when the truce was agreed on by the countries after 12 days of the war.

Globally, crude oil prices are expected to decline further as the eight (8) OPEC+ nations that voluntarily cut down output by 2.2 million bpd in 2023 to avert stumbling prices have now agreed to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million bpd voluntary adjustments starting in the middle of the year. This coupled with the slower-than-expected global economic growth, tariff impositions by the US, and increasing crude production by some non-OPEC nations will increase global supply and most likely further weaken prices.

Moreover, the growing adoption of Electronic Vehicles (EVs) in recent times continue to diminish the expected growth in the demand for crude and petroleum products. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the rapid growth in EV sales over the past 5 years has had a significant impact on the global car fleet, growing to almost 58 million at the end of 2024. About 17 million EVs were sold in 2024, rising in China by about 30%. It is expected that crude and petroleum prices on the global market will decline in the coming months.

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the first selling window of September (1^st to 15^th September) is estimated at GHS12.9500/USD, based on quotation from oil financing commercial banks, factoring in the 12% depreciation of the cedi from the last pricing window. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.7500/USD based on quotations from oil financing commercial banks.

The cedi from the last selling window has been depreciating sharply, leading to a depreciation of about GHS1.20, from about GHS10.70/USD to about GHS11.85/USD as quoted by some commercial banks.

The depreciation of the cedi notwithstanding, the Importers and Exporters Association of Ghana has lamented on the rising incidence of shortage of USD in the market. They are expressing worry about the struggle to access USD to meet their foreign currency obligation to their suppliers. The inaccessibility of the USD invariably impacts the FX rate, leading to higher pump prices.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.

Ex-ref Price Effective 1^st to 15^th September 2025

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 16^th to 31^st August 2025 selling window accounts for about 34.33%, 31.50%, and 16.09% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. This shows that consumers are overburdened with levies on petroleum products.

OMC Pricing Performance: 16^th to 31^st August 2025

Most OMCs have begun increasing their pump prices largely due to recent concerns of FX unavailability leading to the depreciation of the cedi. Pump prices of petroleum products have been on a downward trajectory since February following the significant appreciation and stability of the cedi against the US dollar and plummeting international price of crude and petroleum products. The cedi, which was trading at about GHS14.85/USD at the end of December 2024 appreciated significantly since April to about GHS10.75/USD in the beginning of August 2025. As a result, pump prices declined significantly by an average of 20% since the beginning of the year.

However, recent weeks has witnessed the GHS/USD rising to about GHS11.70/USD. Due to the depreciation of the cedi, pump prices of petrol rose slightly in the window under review although petrol prices at the international market is on a downward trend. Despite the slight stability of the GHS/USD FX rate in recent past, importers, including BIDECs continue to raise concerns about the availability of USD in the market, forcing them to resort to alternative sources at higher rates. Stakeholders continue to call on government to streamline and sanitize the forex market to ensure availability of forex at competitive rates for petroleum imports. In view of this, the BOG has issued a directive seeking to enforce the laws governing the foreign currency usage in the country. The directive seeks to strictly enforce the unlawful pricing and invoicing in USD in the country and the operations of the “Black Market”.

It is expected that these measures by the BoG will reduce the unnecessary demand for USD for domestic transaction. When this is effectively enforced, it will promote the stability of  the cedi and reduce the constant depreciation of the cedi, and in effect, lower pump prices.

Due to the depreciation of the cedi in the period and low stocks of petrol, pump prices of petrol rose by about 2.13% to an average of GHS12.4370 per liter. On a year-on-year basis, pump prices of petrol are down by an average of 7.50% and 12.60% on a year-to-date basis.

Average pump prices of diesel declined from an average of GHS13.7889/Ltr to an average of GHS13.4080/Ltr due to the decline in international prices. Pump prices of LPG also declined by 1.40% due to the combined effects of the appreciation of the cedi and fall in global prices of petroleum products. LPG pump prices have declined by 21.36% since January partly due to government decision to exclude LPG from the Energy Sector Shortfall and Debt Repayment Levy (GHS1.00 Levy).

Pump prices are expected to edge slightly in the coming window (1^st to 15^th September) due to the depreciation of the cedi despite the marginal decline in prices at the international market.

[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.