Crude and Refined Products Price Review and Outlook    

International crude oil prices are higher by about 15.66% since January, with benchmark prices surpassing USD70/bbl for the first time in seven months. Crude oil prices at the global market rose significantly from USD61.74/bbl in January 2026 to an average of USD71.41 in the current window. This significant surge is attributable to the global geopolitical uncertainties driven by escalating tensions between the Trump’s administration and Iran, following protests in several Iranian cities over economic challenges and subsequent U.S. allegations of human rights violations against protesters.

The recent negotiations between the US and Iran continue to have a great impact on the expectations of investors. According to Reuters news, “Oil prices gained more than a dollar a barrel during the talks on media reports indicating that discussions had stalled over U.S. insistence on zero enrichment of uranium by Iran”.

Due to the rising crude oil prices in the global market, refined petroleum prices, petrol, diesel, and Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK) proportionately edged up by an average of 4.75%, 1.98%, and 2.84%, respectively. Industry experts estimate that current crude oil prices incorporate a geopolitical risk premium of approximately USD8/bbl, driven by uncertainties surrounding a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global crude oil supply transits. Notwithstanding, OPEC has announced its intention to raise output by about 137,000 barrels per day in March and April 2026.

As a result of the recent surge in global crude prices, we expect petroleum products’ pump prices in Ghana in the coming window of 1^st to 15^th March to rise proportionately. Consumers should therefore anticipate a moderate rise in petrol, diesel, and LPG prices at the pumps from 1^st March 2026.

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the first selling window of March (1^st to 15^th March 2026) is estimated at GHS11.0000/USD, based on quotations received from oil-financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS10.8000/USD based on quotations from oil-financing commercial banks, representing an appreciation of 2%.

The graph above shows that although the cedi recorded significant appreciation in 2025, persistent volatility continues to undermine effective business planning. A strong and stable currency delivers sustained benefits to the broader economy, particularly for petroleum products, which are predominantly imported and therefore highly sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations. We therefore urge government and policy makers to adopt policies to curtail persistence volatilities of the cedi.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.

Ex-ref Price Effective 1^st to 15^th March 2026

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 1^st to 15^th February 2026 selling window accounted for about 39.45%, 35.27%, and 16.52% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. This data shows that consumers are overburdened with levies on petroleum products.

OMC Pricing Performance: 16^th to 28^th February 2026

Pump prices of petroleum products have been on a consistent decline over the past nine months, providing significant relief to consumers in transportation costs and easing inflationary pressures. Notwithstanding this downward trend, current pump prices remain elevated when compared to levels observed in 2021 and 2022. The recent elevated pump prices are largely driven by the sharp depreciation of the cedi against major trading currencies and the spike in international crude oil prices influenced by geopolitical factors and the global energy transition drive. Between January and December 2024, the cedi depreciated by approximately 40.88%, contributing to an estimated 10% increase in the average pump price despite the about 10% decline in international prices within the period. The ongoing geopolitical crises between Russia and Ukraine as well as the recent conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant surge in global prices.

However, the cedi appreciated strongly in 2025, leading to a significant drop in pump prices throughout 2025 to 2026. Moreover, international petroleum prices have eased considerably in recent months, largely due to increased production by both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.

In the window under review, pump prices of petrol rose slightly by about 2.73% due to the combined effect of a depreciated cedi and a rise in international market price. On a year-on-year basis, pump prices of petrol are down by about 28.20%. However, pump prices are down by about 1.85% compared to January of this year.

Similarly, pump prices of diesel also rose by an average of about 2.97% in the window under review due to similar factors. Compared to the same period last year, pump prices of diesel are down by 20.30% and up by 2.45% compared to January 2026. LPG, however, rose slightly by 0.33% due to international market factors.

Following the recent rebound in international crude and refined product prices, combined with the slight appreciation of the cedi, pump prices are expected to rise slightly in the coming window of 1^st to 15^th March 2026.

[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.