Crude Oil and Refined Products Market Review and Outlook 

Crude prices on the international market have since the second window of February witnessed a sustained downward trajectory . This is largely attributed to the uncertainties in the global economy introduced by the US imposition of tariffs on some of its trade partners. According to CITAC Africa, the uncertainty in the US/China tariff trade war will continue to cloud global economic growth and influence global crude and petroleum products demand. The US also imposed some sanctions on Iran’s oil exports with the intent of restricting Iran’s financial ability to proceed with its nuclear program.

Crude oil on the global market fell about 6.84% in the window under review. It has, however, fallen significantly by about 25.62% on a year-on-year basis and 14.82% since January 2025. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), global inventories are expected to rise significantly in the second quarter, with Brent crude price anticipated to average $62/b in the second half of this year and further falling to $59/b in 2026.

Crude, Petrol, and Diesel have been at their lowest since June 2021 due to increasing global production by OPEC+ nations and a general slum in global economic growth. Since June 2024, global market prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG have declined significantly by 53.62%, 53.58%, and 43.41% respectively. We anticipate global prices to continue to decline throughout the second quarter of the year.

The BoG’s biweekly FX auction to BIDECs in the 1^st to 15thMay 2025 pricing window for the purchase of petroleum products was US$20 million, representing just 22% of BIDECs’ bid. Due to the recent appreciation of the cedi against the US dollar, the BOG interbank rate has appreciated significantly by about 14.29% since January. As the cedi continues to perform well against the dollar, we expect pump prices of petroleum products to reduce drastically and prices of goods to also reduce according.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.      

Ex-ref Price Effective 16^th to 31^st May 2024

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 1^st to 15^th May 2024 selling window accounted for 22.78%, 21.66%, and 12.21% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively.

OMC Pricing Performance: 1^st to 15^th May 2025

Consumers of petroleum products in Ghana have started to enjoy the effects of the recent robust appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi. The cedi has in recent weeks appreciated by over 10% since the beginning of the year. The Cedi which was trading at bout GHS14.85/USD at the end of December 2024 is currently trading at about GHS13.10/USD by the commercial banks. The Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, has assured stakeholders that the recent appreciation of the cedi is not a fleeting development but the result of deliberate and strategic economic management. The BoG governor indicated the bank’s commitment to implementing measures to preserve the current stability of the cedi. Thus, he said, “the cedi’s days of excessive volatility against the dollar are coming to an end”. The Governor has also indicated the central bank’s commitment to stabilizing the cedi, highlighting that the bank has accumulated enough reserves to guarantee the stability of the FX. 

Coupled with the recent depreciation of the cedi, global prices of products have been on a downward trend since February 2025. The decline in global petroleum product prices has been largely attributed to the imposition of tariffs by the US on its imports from some of its major trade partners. In April 2025, the retaliatory tariff war between the US and China resulted in the imposition of a 145% tariff on US imports from China and a retaliatory 125% tariff by China on imports from the US.

Due to the recent appreciation of the cedi and the decline in global crude prices, petrol pump prices in Ghana declined by about 3.73%. Petrol prices have declined by about 9.51% since January and 5.91% compared to the same time last year.

The recent appreciation of the cedi and the decline of global crude prices has resulted in a sharp decline in pump prices. Diesel pump prices declined by about 2.91% in the window under review and 6.4% since January.

As the government continues its commitment to stabilize the economy through its macroeconomic programs and the Goldbod, it is expected that pump prices will decline further in the coming window. We expect that transport fares and prices of goods will decline proportionately.