Crude Oil and Refined Products Market Review and Outlook
• Global crude oil prices rose significantly in April and in the first week of May above the USD90/bbl benchmark. They are expected to remain in a broad holding pattern towards the end of the second quarter of 2024. The significant surge in the crude prices is largely due to the heightened tensions between Iran and Israel as well as the attacks on some Russian refineries by Ukraine.
• Although crude prices increased by about 5.78% in the first window in April, they have subsequently declined by 5.54% in the window under review. This decline is attributed to increasing US crude stockpiles and the contraction in demand among members of the Organization for Economic Corporation (OECD). Global oil supply is also projected to increase by 580,000b/d this year to a record 102.7 mb/d as non-OPEC+ output rises by 1.4 mb/d while OPEC+ production falls 840,000b/d, if the OPEC+ countries maintain voluntary cuts in production.
• On a year-on-year basis, crude prices have risen by 10.32% and 8.00% since the beginning of the year. The price of crude oil for the 16th to 31st May pricing window stand at USD84.55/bbl.
• The international prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG declined by 5.68%, 4.51%, and 4.72% respectively. Petrol, diesel, and LPG prices on the international market currently stand at USD888.81/MT, USD756.28/MT, USD460.64/MT respectively. On a year-on-year basis, petrol, diesel, and LPG rose by 11.76%, 12.00%, and 1.74% respectively. However, petrol surged significantly by about 17.93%, while diesel and LPG declined by 3.39% and 19.52% respectively on a year-to-date basis.
• The depreciating Cedi/USD FX rate is anticipated to negate the potential transfer of the reduced crude prices to petroleum consumers in Ghana.
FuFeX30 and Spot Rates
The Fufex30[1] for the second selling window of May (16th to 31st May 2024) is estimated at GHS14.6595/USD, while the applicable spot rate for cash sales is GHS14.2000/USD based on quotations received from oil financing commercial banks.
[1] The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.
| SUMMARY REPORT OF BANK OF GHANA FX AUCTIONS TO BIDECs | ||
| Window | Percentage Offered | Auction FX Rate (GHS/USD) |
| 1st to 15th January 2024 | 19% | 12.1497 |
| 16th to 31st January 2024 | 31% | 12.1369 |
| 1st to 15th February 2024 | 21% | 12.3948 |
| 16th to 29th February 2024 | 23% | 12.4888 |
| 1st to 15th March 2024 | 23% | 12.7291 |
| 16th to 31st March 2024 | 22% | 12.9737 |
| 1st to 15th April 2024 | 30% | 13.1160 |
| 16th to 30th April 2024 | 31% | 13.2259 |
| 1st to 15th May 2024 | 29% | 13.8643 |
| 16th to 31st May 2024 | 30% | 14.1419 |
The BoG’s bi-weekly FX auction to BIDECs in the 16th to 31st May 2024 pricing window for the purchase of petroleum products was US$20 million, representing 30% of BIDECs’ bid. The FX rate at which the BoG auctioned to BIDECs was GHS14.1419/USD, representing a depreciation of 16.40% year-to-date.
The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)
The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window, and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.
Ex-ref Price Effective 16th to 31st May 2024
| Price Component | Petrol | Diesel | LPG |
| Average World Market Price (US$/mt) | 888.8100 | 756.2800 | 460.6400 |
| CBOD Benchmark Breakeven Premium (US$/mt) | 120 | 120 | 260 |
| Spot FX Rates | 14.2000 | 14.2000 | 14.2000 |
| FuFex30 (GHS/USD) | 14.6595 | 14.6595 | 14.6595 |
| Volume Conversion Factor (ltr/mt) | 1324.50 | 1183.43 | 1000.00 |
| Ex-ref Price (GHS/ltr) Cash Sales | 10.8155/ltr | 10.5145/ltr | 10.2331/kg |
| Ex-ref Price (GHS/ltr) 45-day Credit Sales | 11.1655/ltr | 10.8547/ltr | 10.5642/kg |
| Price Tolerance | +1%/-1% | +1%/-1% | +1%/-1% |
Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins
Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 1st to 15th May 2024 selling window accounted for 22.52%, 22.26%, and 13.48% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively.
| TRM Components | Petrol (GHS/ltr) | Diesel (GHS/ltr) | LPG (GHS/KG) |
| ENERGY DEBT RECOVERY LEVY | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| ROAD FUND LEVY | 0.48 | 0.48 | – |
| ENERGY FUND LEVY | 0.01 | 0.01 | – |
| PRICE STABILISATION & RECOVERY LEVY | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| SANITATION & POLLUTION LEVY | 0.10 | 0.10 | – |
| ENERGY SECTOR RECOVERY LEVY | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| PRIMARY DISTRIBUTION MARGIN | 0.26 | 0.26 | – |
| BOST MARGIN | 0.12 | 0.12 | – |
| FUEL MARKING MARGIN | 0.09 | 0.09 | – |
| SPECIAL PETROLEUM TAX | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| UPPF | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| DISTRIBUTION/PROMOTION MARGIN | – | – | 0.05 |
| TOTAL | 3.22 | 3.20 | 2.11 |
OMC Pricing Performance: 1st to 15th May 2024
• Petrol and Diesel prices rose to their highest since February 2023 because of international crude prices and the depreciating local currency.
• In July 2023 LPG prices at the pump fell to as low as GH10/kg. However, LPG prices have since risen by about 57.19% owing largely to the rise in global demand and the depreciating cedi.
• The average pump prices of petroleum products in the 1st to 15th May 2024 increased, largely due to the depreciation of the cedi against the dollar.
• The Ghanaian cedi has depreciated by an average of over GHS1.5000 against the USD since January, this has impacted the pricing of petroleum products.
• Pump prices of petrol have increased by over 50% since March 2022 and by over GHS2/Ltr on average since January 2024. Petrol pump prices, which averaged GHS9.3390/Ltr in 2022, are currently being quoted at about GHS14.1900/Ltr by some OMCs. This surge is largely attributed to the sharp depreciation of the Cedi.
• Pump prices for diesel have also risen above GHS14.50 per liter for the first time since February 2023. Presently, diesel is being sold at an average rate of GHS14.3710/Ltr, compared to GHS12.7450/Ltr and GHS10.2740/Ltr in 2023 and 2022, respectively.
• Pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG are expected to remain unchanged in the 16th to 31st May 2024 pricing window due to the depreciation of the cedi against the US dollar.
