Crude Oil and Refined Products Market Review and Outlook 

Global crude prices rose by an average of 1.38% in the first quarter of 2025 but have fallen significantly in recent weeks due to the global uncertainties arising from the current tariff war between the US and China. Crude prices peaked in February, with Brent spot prices rising to as high as $83/bbl. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), on April 10^th, sharply cut its estimate of U.S. crude prices to $63.88/bb for 2025 from a prior forecast of $70.68/bb, citing global trade policy and higher OPEC production. They have also forecasted that global oil consumption for 2025 will increase by 0.4 m bpd lower than the previous forecast of 0.9 m bpd. Although the tariffs imposed by the US has exempted oil, global oil demand is expected to decline along with economic growth.

EIA expects continued growth in U.S. and global oil production as OPEC+ accelerates its previously announced production increases. OPEC+ announced on April 3^rd that its member countries will start oil production increases in May instead of July as was previously announced. 

Global crude prices are expected to remain low due to the significant uncertainties in energy supply and demand as well as the slower-than-expected global economic growth. Global oil demand has been projected to grow by about 1 m bpd driven particularly by China. Asia is projected by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to account for almost 60% of growth in global energy demand, led by China, where petrochemical feedstocks will provide the entirety of growth.

Global market prices of crude, diesel, and LPG declined by 2.55%, 3.78%, and 9.54%, respectively, while petrol increased by about 2.32% over the period.  The US and China tariff war is expected to continue to push global prices downwards in the coming months.

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30^[1] for the second selling window of April (16^th to 30^th April) is estimated at GHS15.8000/USD, while the applicable spot rate for cash sales is GHS15.6000/USD based on quotations received from oil financing commercial banks.

The BoG’s biweekly FX auction to BIDECs in the 16^th to 30^th April 2025 pricing window for the purchase of petroleum products was US$20 million, representing just 18% of BIDECs’ bid. The FX rate at which the BoG auctioned to BIDECs rose from GHS14.7690 in January 2025 to GHS15.5573 per USD in the current window, representing a depreciation of 5.34%. It is expected that the government’s fiscal policy measures as outline in the 2025 Budget if implemented will stabilize the cedi and pump prices. 

 The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window, and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.      

Ex-ref Price Effective 16^th to 30^th April March 2024

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 1^st to 15^th April 2024 selling window accounted for 21.48%, 21.05%, and 12.25% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively.

OMC Pricing Performance: 1^st to 15^th April 2025

Pump price of petroleum products remained stable in the first quarter of the year despite the temporal surge in the first selling window of February due to the relative increase in international prices. The New Trump Administration imposed taxes on several countries upon assumption of office. In February, President Trump imposed a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China.  However, the tariff on energy resources from Canada was to be 10% lower.  This notwithstanding, the retaliatory tariff war between the US and China has resulted in the imposition of a 145% tariff on US imports from China and a retaliatory 125% tariff by China on imports from US. This trade war is expected to affect the growth of the global economy and, to a larger extent, the growth in global demand for crude and petroleum products.

The exchange rate has been relatively stable since the beginning of the year, attributed to the interventions of the BOG in the FX market. The stability of the FX has mainly contributed to the relative stability of pump prices in the first quarter. Compared to the last quarter of 2024, average pump prices of petrol and diesel rose by 7% and 3%, respectively while LPG declined by 3%. As the government has indicated its commitment to stabilize the macroeconomy and the cedi through urgent economic recovery programs to shore up foreign reserves and to build sufficient buffers to manage public debt servicing, pump prices are expected to remain stable in 2025.

In the pricing window under review, pump prices of petrol fell by 2.31% compared to a reduction of 3.26% in the previous window. Pump prices of petrol are currently around 2.29% lower on a year-to-date basis.

Pump prices of diesel declined marginally by 0.87% after declining by about 2.21% in the previous window. Pump prices of diesel are about 5.21% higher on a year-on-year basis and about 2.10% lower on a year-to-date basis.

Although global prices of crude and petroleum products except petrol declined in the period under review, the FX rate at which BoG auctioned FX to BIDECs under the Special FX auction for petroleum products importation depreciated slightly by about 0.02%. Commercial FX rate has also depreciated by about 0.5% over the period. As the government and BoG continue to commit to the stability of the FX rate, we expect pump price to remain stable throughout 2025. We expect pump prices to remain unchanged in the 16^th to 30^th April pricing window.