Crude Oil and Refined Products Market Review and Outlook

Crude oil and refined petroleum product prices recorded notable increases on the international market during the 16th to 30th November 2025 pricing window. The upward trend was largely driven by rising demand from China, the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia, and positive market sentiment following the tariff agreement between the United States and China, which has further bolstered global demand for crude oil and refined products.

During the period under review, the average price of crude oil rose by approximately 2.95%, while petrol, diesel, and LPG prices increased by 3.85%, 12.12%, and 6.97%, respectively. This represents a reversal of the downward trend observed over the preceding months.

It is worth noting that although prices surged sharply in June 2025 following Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the market subsequently experienced a sharp correction as OPEC and non-OPEC producers ramped up output, easing supply constraints and stabilising market conditions.

Going into the final month of the year, global crude oil prices are expected to remain moderately bullish, supported by steady demand from major Asian economies and ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Russia and the Middle East. However, the anticipated increase in supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, coupled with seasonal demand moderation in some regions, may limit further upward movement. Overall, market analysts project a narrow trading range with prices likely to remain slightly above recent averages, barring any major supply disruptions or geopolitical escalations.

In addition, global demand growth for crude and refined products is expected to slow as the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) accelerates. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global EV fleet expanded to about 58 million units by the end of 2024, with 17 million sales in 2024 alone, driven largely by China. This trend is projected to weaken medium-term demand and exert downward pressure on global oil prices.

FuFeX30 and Spot Rates

The Fufex30¹ for the second selling window of November (16th to 30th November) is estimated at GHS11.5000/USD, based on quotations from oil financing commercial banks. Moreover, the applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.3000/USD based on quotations from oil financing commercial banks.
Although the cedi depreciated significantly from September to October, it appreciated considerably against the USD in November, leading to the decline in pump prices experienced in the first window of November. It is expected that the cedi will continue to hold strong against the USD in December.

¹ The Fufex30 is a 30-day GHS/USD forward fx rate used as a benchmark rate for BIDECs ex-ref price estimations.

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.

Ex-ref Price Effective 1st to 15th September 2025

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 1st to 15th November 2025 selling window account for about 34.58%, 33.89%, and 15.92% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively. This shows that consumers are overburdened with levies on petroleum products.

OMC Pricing Performance: 1st to 15th November 2025

Pump prices of petroleum products declined in the 1st to 15th November pricing window, largely due to the combined effects of international market dynamics and domestic currency performance. This underscores the complex interplay between global events and domestic factors, particularly local currency performance, on the pump prices of petroleum products.

The increase in global crude supply from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, particularly the United States, Canada, and Brazil, coupled with the appreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar, contributed to a decline in domestic pump prices during the review period. The average pump price of petrol decreased by 5.87% from approximately GHS13.1190/Ltr to GHS12.3490/Ltr, while diesel declined by 5.86% from GHS13.3190/Ltr to GHS12.5390/Ltr.

Petrol pump prices fell below GHS11/Ltr at some OMCs, mainly due to the impact of the FX rate and international prices. On a year-on-year basis, pump prices of petrol are down by 14.30% and down by 16.99% on a year-to-date basis.

Average pump prices of diesel declined by an average of 5.8%, with some OMCs selling below GHS12/Ltr. The decline was also due to the significant fall in the international market price of diesel in the period and the appreciation of the cedi against the USD. LPG also declined by 2.39% from an average of GHS13.8780/kg to GHS13.5460/kg due to the decline in the international price of LPG.

The decline in international crude and refined product prices, combined with the appreciation of the cedi against the U.S. dollar during the first half of November, resulted in a notable reduction in pump prices across all petroleum products in the 1st to 15th November 2025 pricing window. However, with the recent uptick in international market prices and the slight depreciation of the cedi within the current pricing window, pump prices are projected to rise marginally in the upcoming 16th to 30th November 2025 window.