The BoG’s biweekly FX auction to BIDECs in the 1^st to 15^th May 2025 pricing window for the purchase of petroleum products was US$20 million, representing just 22% of BIDECs’ bid. The FX rate at which the BoG auctioned to BIDECs declined from GHS15.5573 to GHS14.2877 per USD in the current window, representing an appreciation of 8.16%. It is expected that the government’s fiscal policy measures as outlined in the 2025 Budget if implemented will stabilize the cedi and pump prices. 

The Ex-Refinery Price Indicator (Xpi)

The Ex-ref price indicator (Xpi) is computed using the referenced international market prices usually adopted by BIDECs, factoring in the CBOD economic breakeven benchmark premium for a given window, and converting from USD/mt to GHS/ltr using the Fufex30 for sales on credit and the spot FX rate for sales on cash.      

Ex-ref Price Effective 1^st to 15^th May 2024

Taxes, Levies, and Regulatory Margins

Total taxes, levies, and regulatory margins within the 16^th to 30^th April 2024 selling window accounted for 22.78%, 21.66%, and 12.21% of the ex-pump prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, respectively.

OMC Pricing Performance: 16^th to 30^th April 2025

Despite rising slightly in January, pump price of petroleum products has been on a relative decline since the second selling window of February 2025. Even though pump prices have been relatively stable in the first quarter of the year, the temporal surge in the first selling window of February was due to the ephemeral rise in international prices in February. The Trump administration has since imposed taxes on several countries upon assumption of office. Currently, the retaliatory tariff war between the US and China has resulted in the imposition of a 145% tariff on US imports from China and a retaliatory 125% tariff by China on imports from  US. Although the tariff excludes energy products, the tariff war is expected to affect the growth of the global economy and, to a larger extent, the growth in global demand for crude and petroleum products.

The BOG has largely been participating in the FX market to ensure the stability of the cedi. Speaking to Joy Business, the BoG governor indicated the bank’s commitment to implementing measures to preserve the current stability of the cedi. Thus, he said, “the cedi’s days of excessive volatility against the dollar are coming to an end”. The governor also indicated the central bank’s accumulation of enough reserves to guarantee the stability of the FX.  The government has also indicated its commitment to stabilize the macroeconomy and the cedi through urgent economic recovery programs and the Goldbod initiative. The stability of the FX has mainly contributed to the relative stability of pump prices in the first quarter.

Cumulatively, petrol pump prices have declined by about 8.22% since February. In the pricing window under review, pump prices of petrol fell by 1.25% compared to a reduction of 2.31% in the previous window.

Pump prices of diesel declined cumulatively by about 4.04% since February. In the window under review, pump prices of diesel have declined by about 0.72% and 2.40% higher on a year-on-year basis.

Due to the current tariff war persisting between the US and China, global demand for crude and refined products has been on the decline in recent times resulting in a downward trend of crude prices. Moreover, the current intervention of the BOG in the FX market continues to stabilise the cedi against the USD.  It is expected that the recent performance of the cedi and related decline in global prices will result in a decline in pump prices in the coming window (1^st to 15^th May 2025).  Current economic occurrences have resulted in the central bank revising its end-of-year inflation target from 16% to 12%.